Future Trends: What Skills Will Our Children Need for the World of Tomorrow?
How will the world order, the environment, technology, economy, society, family and childhood change in the next 20 or 30 years? What skills do today's children need in order to be successful and happy as adults? These questions will be addressed in the following text.
The World of Tomorrow
My paternal grandfather lived from 1882 to 1954. It is unthinkable that at the time of his birth a scientist would have given a lecture in which he predicted that during my grandfather's lifetime, for example, the car (1885), the dirigible airship (1900), the airplane (1903: first motor flight), radio (1923), television (1929), nylon fibers (1938), the V2 long-range rocket (1942), the nuclear reactor (1942), and the atomic bomb (1945) would be invented. As far as I know, one predicted in 1882 that over the next 70 years science and industry would experience an incredible boom, more and more people would move to the cities, streets would be paved and equipped with lights, empires and kingdoms would be replaced by democracies, two world wars would break out and the communists would come to power in Russia, China and other countries.
Today the situation is somewhat different. Futurology has become an interdisciplinary field of work, in which primarily scientists and managers are active. There are only a few chairs for futurology at universities, but many scientists deal with future forecasts in their field of work - be it climatology, economics, biology, oceanography or architecture, for example. State departments, statistical offices, corporations, banks, management consultancies and supranational organizations such as the UN, the European Commission and the OECD predict future developments. It is now possible to extrapolate trends into the future, taking into account, for example, that technological developments are accelerating.
Nevertheless, major uncertainties remain. Natural disasters in particular are largely unpredictable, even if we know that at some point California and the region around Tokyo will be hit by major earthquakes or that volcanoes under Naples and Yellowstone National Park are about to erupt. Also major political upheavals cannot be predicted. For example, the economic miracle in East and South Asia would come to a rapid end, if a new cultural revolution would occur in China or if hundreds of millions of people - who have hardly benefited from economic growth so far - would revolt in India.
The forecasts presented on this website neither contain any quotations or references in order not to disrupt the flow of thought. Nor is this a complete overview of future developments or a detailed discussion of individual trends. For the purpose of this website it is irrelevant, for example, whether the population of Germany in 2040 will be 81 or 85 million people. Likewise, there is no need to discuss different forecasts of climate change - whether, for example, the global temperature will increase by 4 or 6 degrees till 2100 or perhaps even more. The only thing that matters is that such trends exist and that today's children will have to cope with the associated challenges as adults.
It should also be noted that this website does not want to convey a pessimistic attitude towards the future or even instill fear of the future. Just looking back at the last 150 years shows that almost every generation has mastered great challenges - just think of the First and Second World Wars, the global economic crisis that began in 1929, the Third Reich, the Vietnam and Iraq wars, the banking crises that started in 2007 or the Covid pandemic. Technological changes were certainly more radical for my grandfather (see above) than for the children of today who grew up with them. Which child shies away from new technology as many adults do? The next generation will certainly adapt to future developments and cope with the respective requirements. But they will find this easier if we prepare them…
The International Context
By 2050, the world population will increase from 8 to around 9.7 billion people. Population growth is mainly taking place in regions that already have problems with water shortages, inadequate agricultural production and poverty. Therefore, more migration and ethnic tensions can to be expected in the future. At the same time, the average age of the world population will rise from 31 to 36 years in 2050. Then more senior citizens will have to be cared for, which could lead to new social crises in poorer countries without pension insurances.
Since 2008, more than half of humanity has lived in cities. Their share will continue to increase in the coming decades - by 2050 it will be almost three quarters. More and more people will live in megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants. In many towns environmental problems (air pollution, no or unclean water, mountains of garbage, inadequate sewage treatment) and poverty will increase. The number of slum dwellers will continue to rise.
Two thirds of the global economic output and four fifths of technological innovations are generated in the 40 largest metropolitan areas worldwide, although only a small proportion of the world's population lives here. Most of the flow of goods runs between these centers or between them and the surrounding areas. Most corporations are based in the metropolitan areas. Most people living there think and live increasingly globally. They are being joined by more and more academics and skilled workers who previously lived in developing countries because they have better career opportunities and earn more in OECD or newly industrialized countries. These people "live" globalization, but only form a small minority: Around 90% of the world's population only knows their home country - and often only the region around their place of birth.
Globalization has led to companies shifting many jobs to "cheaper" countries. In more developed countries, the unemployment rate has risen and workers' incomes have stagnated. In addition, working conditions have deteriorated in many newly industrialized and developing countries. Moreover, environmental protection has been neglected because governments either want to keep jobs in their country or undercut "more expensive" ones. The shift of jobs from more developed to less developed countries will only end when robots can produce more cheaply than workers in developing countries or when transport costs become too high due to rising energy prices. Jobs in the service sector, in public administration, as well as in research and development are less affected by this trend.
Financial and debt crises will shape world events in the coming years. They began in the spring of 2007 with the US real estate crisis leading to losses and bankruptcies among companies in the financial sector (particularly banks), some of which were only able to continue to exist thanks to government injections of capital. In many countries, the financial crisis expanded into an economic crisis, which governments attempted to counteract with economic stimulus programs and central banks by radically reducing interest rates. Since then we see ever increasing debts of states, companies, banks and private households, so that new debt crises can be expected in the future. These crises will shake people's confidence in the capitalist economic system - but also in politics, as many citizens are not happy with the reactions of politicians, which always lag behind events on the financial markets, and have the impression that companies are being rescued at their own expense (taxes) or at the expense of future generations (public debt). Particularly if financial crises lead to long-lasting recessions or high inflation, there could be strong protest movements and government overthrows.
In addition, further crises are looming in the next 30 years:
- Climate change: Global warming will lead to droughts, severe storms and floods all over the world. Many people will have to leave their settlements. The UN Refugee Agency expects there to be around 250 million climate refugees by 2050.
- Food crisis: Global population growth, the more resource-intensive diet of the increasing number of middle-class people in newly industrialized and developing countries (e.g. more meat and milk consumption), the loss of previously agricultural land due to urbanization, the decreasing fertility of the arable land in many places, water shortages, erosion and desertification will lead to a shortage of food. In addition, more and more crops will be used to produce biofuels. The gradual decline in global food production will lead to further increases in food prices. Then the number of people going hungry - people who cannot afford these costs - will rise.
- Energy and raw materials crisis: On the one hand, the need for energy sources such as oil, natural gas and coal as well as for other raw materials (especially in newly industrialized countries) is increasing rapidly. On the other hand, the known reserves are shrinking and will at some point be depleted. Raw materials will therefore become scarcer and more expensive during the next decades.
Global population growth, climate change and food, energy and raw materials crises will increasingly force humanity to encounter the "limits to growth" that the Club of Rome proclaimed in the early 1970s. The capitalist system, the wasteful use of natural resources, mass consumption and the "throw-away" society may no longer have a future. However, the window of opportunity for countermeasures is much smaller today than it was 50 years ago. In addition, the aforementioned financial and economic crises have diverted attention from these much larger problems - and at the same time reduced the financial resources available for countermeasures. The mounting costs for pensions, medical services and nursing care caused by the ageing of the population in developed countries will decrease the financial resources even more.
The lack of political will to take drastic measures (e.g. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to control births) makes it increasingly likely that mankind will lose the race against time. Accordingly, pessimism about the future is increasing in many countries.
Required Skills
For all future trends presented on this website, the basic rule is that children and young people - especially those of school age - should learn about these developments so that they know what will happen to them in the coming decades. This includes dealing with global trends such as population growth in developing and newly industrialized countries, urbanization, globalization, impending bottlenecks in the supply of raw materials and food, as well as current financial and economic crises. However, since forecasts are only of limited reliability, they must also learn to live with uncertainty.
Children and young people should neither develop fear of the future nor a feeling of hopelessness ("I can't change that!"). Rather, it is important to develop relevant attitudes and behavioral tendencies based on a realistic knowledge of the future: In particular, young people and adolescents should accept the limits of growth, i.e. prepare themselves for the fact that the (global) economy cannot continue to grow through wasting resources, polluting the environment and increasing debt, and that the governments can no longer distribute benefits at the expense of future generations and must reduce public debts. Developed and newly industrialized countries have achieved prosperity and a relatively high standard of living, which can probably be secured through fairer tax policies, a better distribution of corporate profits and the transformation of a "throw-away" society into a "recycling" society, but can hardly be expanded any further.
Since most children and young people grow up without material worries and as a large part of their consumer desires are fulfilled, they may find it difficult to save or forego something later on. They should therefore be prepared as early as possible for possible cutbacks of their standard of living that could occur in the coming decades. The quality of life should be more important to them than pure consumption or the accumulation of possessions. This does not have to affect their subjective well-being. Happiness research has shown that factors other than purely material ones become more important for life satisfaction as soon as the basic needs are met.
When young people and adolescents develop realistic expectations of the future, disappointments and the associated dangers (e.g. radicalization) are prevented. Moreover, they will rely more on themselves and their social network than on the state. They will forego something for the benefit of other people (e.g. in their own country: seniors and those in need of care; in developing countries: the poor and starving) and strive for an energy-saving and resource-conserving lifestyle.
The New World Order
While the USA as the largest world power currently dominates political events, the coming decades are expected to see the emergence of a multipolar world: China and India will play an increasingly important role in world politics. Europe will probably remain an important economic power, but will not become an influential global player, as national interests will continue to make a common foreign and security policy difficult. In addition, the EU countries will be increasingly limited by the decline in the working population and the sharp rise in social spending due to an aging population.
The situation in developing countries that do not catch up with the newly industrialized countries will worsen due to high population growth and climate change (floods, droughts, desertification, soil erosion). Hundreds of millions of people will barely be able to earn a living. Due to high levels of debt, governments' financial flexibility will be limited. Moreover, foreign investments in developing countries will stay low (except for the exploitation of natural resources or raw materials); the vast majority of direct investments will go to OECD and newly industrialized countries.
In addition to people displaced by (civil) wars, there will be an increasing number of climate refugees. Better qualified individuals, who earn little in their home country, are discriminated against or see no future prospects, will seek refuge in migration. This brain drain will slow down economic and social development in the countries affected.
Required Skills
The greater the importance of countries such as China and India, the more important it becomes to broaden a perspective limited to the Western world and to think more globally. Children and adolescents must learn about countries that will play a greater role on the world market and in world political events in the coming decades. Of course, this does not mean that North American or European countries can be neglected - but the balance must be shifted.
On the one hand, children and adolescents need knowledge about the most important regions and countries in our world. This includes knowledge of geography, history, population, religion, culture, economy, society and politics. On the other hand, children and young people should develop intercultural skills for dealing with people from other countries - be they migrants or tourists or people they meet on holiday trips. But such skills are also of great importance for later study or work stays abroad or for business contacts.
Children and young people must therefore learn to tolerate the attitudes, values and religious beliefs of persons from other countries, to adapt to their customs, lifestyles and eating habits, and to communicate and work with them. Good English skills are indispensable in the future; if necessary, however, languages such as Mandarin, Hindi or Spanish must also be mastered. With English and (standard) Chinese, you can already communicate with half of the world's population.
Furthermore, children and young people should learn about developing countries, especially about their problems. They should develop an understanding of poor and starving people as well as economic and climate refugees and be motivated to help them (later) as much as they can.
Environmental and Climate Changes
In the coming decades, nature will be increasingly stressed by overpopulation and urbanization. Due to climate change, monocultures and the cultivation of plants that are in demand on the world market but only grow locally thanks to the ruthless exploitation of soil and water resources, more and more land will become infertile. Currently, a third of the world's arable land is affected by erosion, while more and more pastureland is being lost due to overgrazing by cattle, sheep and goats. Furthermore, virgin forests are cut or burned down - with devastating consequences for the climate, as tropical rainforests produce 40% of the world's oxygen.
The destruction of nature is leading to a sharp decline in biodiversity. By 2050, around 30% of amphibians, 23% of mammals and 12% of birds could be extinct or threatened with extinction, in addition to many plant species; around 70% of all coral reefs are likely to be destroyed. And if overfishing is not stopped, there will be no more commercial fishing by 2050, according to the UN. This would deprive 1 billion people of their only source of protein.
While environmental pollution has been reduced in OECD countries, it is increasing in newly industrialized and developing countries due to rapid industrialization. In addition, the reduction of non-tariff trade barriers (e.g. import quotas or production standards) promoted by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has led to many countries "watering down" environmental and consumer protection laws. This also has a negative impact on people's health.
The future of humanity is also affected by climate change. Since industrialization, a man-made global temperature increase has been observed, which is accelerating. It is associated with an increase in natural disasters and a spread of diseases such as malaria, cholera and dengue fever towards the north.
The temperature increase is largely caused by carbon dioxide emissions - which have not yet been curbed despite 29 world climate summits (2024). In fact, even greater carbon dioxide emissions are expected due to the continuing increase in the world population, consumption orientation in the highly developed countries and rapid economic growth in the newly industrialized countries. In China alone, more coal is now burned than in the USA, the EU and Japan combined.
Due to higher temperatures and the associated increased evaporation, precipitation has increased by around 7% over the last 100 years. However, there are significant regional differences: while precipitation has increased sharply in the tropics and in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, it has decreased in semi-arid regions such as the Sahel zone. In southern Europe, the southwestern USA and Australia, dry periods will determine the regional climate and lead to an increasing number of forest fires.
According to UNESCO, almost half of the world's population already lives in areas where there is a lack of water for at least one month per year. In 2050, more than 5 billion people will suffer from water shortages. Political and social tensions could increase over the distribution of available water.
Due to the melting of glaciers and ice in the Arctic and Antarctic, sea levels are rising by 3.4 mm per year. By the turn of the century, they could be 1 m higher than today. Then the homes of the 150 to 200 million people will be flooded.
Required Skills
On the one hand, children and young people should acquire knowledge about the importance of natural resources and biodiversity as well as about environmental destruction, pollution and climate change, and on the other hand, develop environmental awareness and love of nature. However, alienation from nature has increased in recent years due to urbanization and domestication - there is even talk of a "nature deficit disorder" (Richard Louv).
Therefore children should have more experiences of nature, because one is only willing to protect what one loves. Then, as adolescents and adults, they will engage in environmental protection, for example, trying to keep their "ecological footprint" (Mathis Wackernagel/ William E. Rees) as small as possible. At the same time, they will be prepared to do whatever they can to protect the environment worldwide. If they know that the Western world has largely caused global warming and is still contributing to it, they will also support climate refugees and possibly welcome them to their home country.
Exponential Growth of Knowledge and Technological Change
In the centuries leading up to the invention of the printing press, human knowledge increased very slowly - and over the centuries it often decreased (e.g. in Europe during the "Dark" Middle Ages). Since books and magazines made it possible to spread knowledge, and especially since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, knowledge has increased exponentially: Every year more and more knowledge is produced by an ever-increasing number of scientists, engineers and other specialists, which can be spread ever more quickly thanks to new media (e.g. Internet, e-books, e-journals).
We are currently in a transition phase from a service society to a knowledge society. Just as more and more jobs for agricultural and factory workers have disappeared due to technological advances, in the future more and more services will be automated or taken over by robots. An increasing number of people - scientists, engineers, technicians, teachers, trainers - will be involved in the production and dissemination of knowledge. Due to the accelerating increase of knowledge, they will have to specialize more and more, as this is the only way they can stay up to date in their (shrinking) specialist field. The competitiveness of a country will also depend more and more on how much (new) knowledge it has generated or is available.
The exponential growth of knowledge is associated with a corresponding acceleration of technological development. In contrast to the last century, it is not only happening faster, but also in more and more areas simultaneously. While in the 19th and early 20th centuries the steam engine and then the combustion engine dominated technological development, today there are no longer any dominant technologies: artificial intelligence, information, communication, bio- and nanotechnology, medical, genetic, vehicle, aerospace technology, mechanical engineering and robotics are developing at a rapid pace. Great progress is also being made in the use of renewable energies, in batteries and in the production of biofuels.
The exponential increase in knowledge and the accelerating technological development are incomprehensible to many people and frighten them. They feel overwhelmed by all the new developments. Human ethologists explain this by saying that mankind’s genetic makeup and ancestral history only prepare for small, linear changes. Many politicians and other social forces are also having difficulty coping with the exponential growth of knowledge and rapid technological change, as well as with the associated increasing complexity of economic and financial systems. It is more and more difficult for them to intervene effectively when necessary (such as in financial or economic crises).
In the coming decades, people will be surrounded by more and more technology at their workplaces, in their homes and in public areas. For example, heating, air conditioning, refrigerators and other household appliances will form a network so that they can be controlled by smartphone or computer. Cars will work with new technologies and safety systems; soon they will be able to drive fully automatically. Computers will become much more powerful and smaller. They already understand the spoken word and can answer questions verbally. Computers will not only store data, but also understand its meaning (semantic web).
Due to the flood of information, it will become increasingly difficult to keep track of things and to separate the important from the unimportant. This is why computer programs for the management and analysis of "big data" will become increasingly important. They will also process information that has been generated by machines, is needed to control them or is intended for other machines. Billions of devices are already networked with each other. More and more systems will be controlled fully automatically - from nuclear power plants to factories and communication systems.
Moreover, technical processes are increasingly controlled by artificial intelligence. AI also plays a major role in robotics. While the USA, for example, is developing mainly exploration and military robots for warfare, Japan is concentrating on developing service robots that can care for the growing number of elderly people and fill the jobs left vacant by the decline in the number of working-age adults. Industrial robots have long been used in factories in highly developed countries. But there are now also robots that look like people, assist the elderly or disabled, perform household chores, play musical instruments, act as receptionists or as tour guides.
Robots are taking over more and more work in industry, commerce, agriculture and the service sector. In some sectors, they could replace between a third and a half of the workers currently employed. This will be less of a problem for countries with low birth rates, as the number of people of working age is declining there. The low cost and high productivity of robots will also make it easier to support the growing number of retirees. In other countries, however, this development could lead to rapidly increasing unemployment, especially since highly developed countries are likely to relocate factories if production by robots is cheaper than by "cheap labor."
After 2030, (humanoid) robots will probably be more intelligent than humans and also have a kind of consciousness. They will be highly capable of learning and adapting. They will also be able to produce new robots independently, with each "generation" likely to be more intelligent and powerful than the previous one. Robots will thus become more and more autonomous.
But mankind will also continue to develop. Medicine will be able to cure more and more diseases, which should lead to a major leap in life expectancy (to 100 years and more). However, the rapid increase in antibiotic-resistant pathogens could also lead to more people dying from infectious diseases. In the future, biosensors will monitor the most important body functions and detect diseases at an early stage. Diagnostics will also be improved by microarrays - molecular biological examination systems - which can be used to analyze human cells at the biochemical level, including DNA. Nanorobots the size of a blood cell will be used to locate and destroy pathogens, plaque or cancer cells, for example. In addition, organs, veins, bones and skin will soon be produced from the body's own cells using bioprinters. Furthermore, physical and sensory disabilities can be compensated more and more easily using technical aids and implants - provided that their occurrence has not been prevented by gene therapy.
Findings from medicine, brain and genetic research will also be used to make people more efficient. This could happen, for example, in embryos by intervening in the genetic material, or in children, adolescents and adults by using psychotropic drugs that make learning easier or stimulate the growth of new brain cells. Some futurologists also expect that brain implants will help people communicate non-verbally or will transfer information and knowledge from a computer to the brain (and vice versa). Human limbs might also be replaced with artificial ones, so that these cyborgs would perform better in sports, for example. Otherwise, physical strength can already be increased using exoskeletons.
In addition to ethical problems, one might also problematize that only rich people or highly industrialized countries will be able to afford such improvements in physical and mental abilities. This could further increase the existing differences between the wealthy and the poorer, or between rich and poor countries. Dictators or criminals could also use these means to increase their power.
In any case, it is to be expected that around the year 2040 autonomous, learning and intelligent robots and people who have been "improved" through medical, genetic and technological means will coexist. The further development of mankind, however, will be limited by biology - but the robots will not...
Required Skills
In the emerging knowledge society, children and young people must acquire a general knowledge as broad as possible on the one hand and increasingly specific professional knowledge on the other. It is particularly positive when they develop an interest in MINT subjects (mathematics, informatics, natural sciences and technology), law, economics, medicine or brain research, as these disciplines are of particular importance in the future.
As knowledge is increasing at an ever faster pace and as once acquired knowledge becomes outdated quickly, learning method skills are also becoming more and more important: children and young people must learn where to find relevant information efficiently, how to assess its value and reliability and how to integrate it into existing knowledge - they must learn to learn. This also includes being able to use AI as well as computer programs for data management and analysis.
Young people must also learn to use and communicate the knowledge they have acquired: As their own area of expertise is becoming smaller, in most fields of work they will increasingly have to cooperate with specialists with other areas of expertise. They must contribute their own knowledge in such a way that their colleagues can understand it - only by interacting and linking different specialist knowledge will the respective team be able to fulfill its task.
In addition to learning methods, communication and cooperation skills also basic attitudes are important: curiosity, motivation to learn, desire to research, joy in experimentation, ability to concentrate, perseverance, etc. The willingness to engage in lifelong learning and the development of reflection, evaluation and problem-solving skills are also considered to be particularly important.
The faster technological change takes place and the more areas of technology are affected at the same time, the more important the adaptability of the individual becomes: Children and young people must not be afraid of new technologies and devices, but should approach them with curiosity and a willingness to experiment. This also applies to working with robots, which must not be viewed as competitors or enemies, even if they have become more efficient than humans thanks to artificial intelligence and sophisticated technical skills.
If we consider that raw materials and energy sources will become increasingly scarce in the coming years and that environmental destruction and pollution will continue to increase (see above), a critical attitude towards new technical achievements is also necessary. Even children and young people should be able to judge whether they always need the latest smartphone or the most powerful games console, for example. Only then will they, as adults, first evaluate technological leaps before buying new devices. Such a critical attitude will also be useful when it comes to the use of medication, human genetic procedures, implants or artificial limbs to improve one's own performance, or when technical achievements are associated with risks.
Economy and Labor Market
The extent to which a country can assert itself on the future global market will depend on whether the economy succeeds in the transition from a service to a knowledge society and whether it remains competitive in future technologies and industries. Social commerce, i.e. enabling social interactions when shopping on the Internet, will play an increasingly important role. Furthermore, more products and services must be developed for senior citizens as their number grows in all countries. Finally, the economy must be able to bring new products to market more quickly, as product life cycles are becoming shorter.
In the coming years, many employees will retire in the developed countries as they belong to the baby boomer generation. There is already a shortage of skilled workers, and the unmet demand will increase in the coming years. Competition from employers for the ever-decreasing number of young people entering the workforce due to the decline in birth rates will increase, which will probably have an impact on starting wages and salaries and lead to a reduction in the gap to final income. In addition, many persons entering the workforce in developed countries will have a migrant background - and their educational qualifications are often low.
As a result of population development the workforce will become increasingly older. The age range of employees in some companies and authorities will be 55 years or even more. Contrary to the fears of many employers, this does not mean that innovation and productivity will suffer. Scientific studies show that companies with a higher proportion of older employees are not per se less productive.
The aging of the workforce will force employers to change their previously youth-focused personnel policies. The more the average age of employees increases, the more important continuing education and training will become for maintaining professional ability and work performance. Workplaces will also increasingly be designed to be age-appropriate, for example through ergonomic innovations, technical support systems and more creative working time models.
In the coming years, the world of work will become increasingly "feminized". The number of housewives is shrinking more and more - but so is the length of career breaks due to childbirth, as small children are attending day care facilities earlier and for longer and older children are attending all-day schools more and more often. In addition, more women have to work because they are single, because their (married) partner's income is not enough or because they want to build up their own pension in the face of generally declining pension entitlements. And more and more women want to work because they have acquired good vocational training or completed a degree, because they want to remain independent through their own income, or because they are looking for self-fulfillment and recognition in their career.
Since many young women now obtain good school, vocational and university qualifications, since many remain childless, and since starting a family is less likely to be a career obstacle than in the past (due to full-time childcare), they will increasingly move into management positions. According to futurologist Horst W. Opaschowski, the economy will say goodbye to the "patriarchal" system and favor a more "feminine" leadership style: According to him women think more pragmatically and work more efficiently, plan for the long term, lead meetings more tightly, avoid risky investments and handle money better. At the same time, career opportunities for men will decrease. In addition, traditionally male characteristics such as physical labor, aggressiveness and willingness to take risks are less in demand in the knowledge society than more female characteristics such as communication skills, social skills, information and time management.
In the coming years, more and more work processes in factories will be taken over by robots. This means that fewer people will be employed as workers. The service sector, on the other hand, will become more important, although simple tasks will be increasingly automated. Even relatively simple jobs will require a wide range of knowledge. For example, car mechanics already have to be able to use computers and electronics.
Competition for lower-skilled jobs will therefore increase - which will probably lead to lower pay. On the other hand, highly qualified people will earn more and more - also due to the growing shortage of skilled workers and increasing competition between employers. However, they will have to deliver and will therefore be under enormous pressure to perform. They will be more likely to work as self-employed people, sometimes with performance-related pay.
More and more employees will have to take on part-time jobs or temporary positions, work freelance for a time or switch between different types of employment, sometimes earning more, sometimes less. This will not only apply to low-skilled workers, but also to many academics with university degrees in low demand.
Despite the population decline and the shortage of skilled workers, there will still be a high unemployment rate in the foreseeable future. Unskilled and semi-skilled workers and those without usable qualifications will find it even more difficult to find employment than today. Since the government will probably only be able to provide very limited benefits for the long-term unemployed due to the high expenditure on senior citizens and the sick, their standard of living will be low. However, some low-skilled people will find a living in self-help networks or additional income in the shadow economy.
Required Skills
If children and young people acquire cognitive, learning, communicative and cooperative skills as well as general and (later) specialist knowledge (see above), they will be able to hold their own in the job market of the future. They should therefore strive for the highest possible qualifications - and of course for those that are in demand by potential employers.
But creativity, innovativeness and productivity are also important skills for the future, as new products must be developed ever more quickly. As production cycles are becoming ever shorter, organizational skills are important when planning them. Entrepreneurial skills are needed to bring new products or services onto the market as quickly and as effectively as possible.
Since the age range between employees in companies, authorities and organizations will continue to grow, and since more and more people with very different migration backgrounds will have to work together, intergenerational and intercultural skills will play a greater role in the future. Young people must develop the willingness to accept employees of a different gender, origin or age group as superiors, colleagues or subordinates without prejudice. Young men should also develop more "feminine" skills such as communication skills, social skills and time management, because these are highly relevant in the cooperative working world of tomorrow. The longer older employees have to remain employed, the more important lifelong learning becomes, as well as the further development of creative and innovative skills. They must also attach great importance to maintaining their health.
Especially when young people become self-employed or freelancers, they are expected to be highly flexible and mobile, as their clients will keep changing. They will also have to develop skills in "self-marketing" by, for example, using all the possibilities offered by the social web. Like other young people, they should develop a high level of motivation and be prepared to work in the evenings or at home. They must also learn to cope with high pressure to perform and high levels of stress without burning out.
The "More Varied" Working Life
The "classic" biography with the phases of training, full-time employment (in the same place) and retirement will be less and less common in the future. Many employees will retrain once or more in the future - so there will be more frequent periods of training or even (new) studies between jobs. Loyalty to the respective employer will decrease because employment relationships are increasingly perceived as being limited in time. Employees will also frequently change their place of residence - either because they are taking up a different job or because they have been transferred by their employer. This mobility will lead to more isolation and a larger number of weekend marriages. In multinational companies, the new job will often be abroad, so that (spouses) and children will either have to stay in their home country or also have to move - with all the associated problems.
"Classic" jobs with working hours between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. will become increasingly rare. In the future, even more employees will have to work shifts, in the evenings, at night and on weekends. However, a large proportion of employees will also have flexible working hours. Knowledge and creative workers in particular will increasingly be able to organize their working day freely and even work at night or at home if this is expected to increase productivity. Many self-employed people will have complete location and time sovereignty, as they can be reached anywhere and at any time thanks to smartphones and the Internet.
Employees and self-employed people will continue to work in offices over the next 40 years. However, many will also work occasionally or even regularly from home or from abroad. Employees will be interrupted more and more often at work, e.g. by incoming emails or by checking their smartphones. This will affect their performance - according to a study by Microsoft Research it takes about a quarter of an hour after an interruption to fully concentrate on the task at hand again. Due to the constant increase in productivity, fewer and fewer employees will have to produce more and more. Highly qualified employees in particular will bring work home more often and do it in the evenings or at weekends.
As innovation cycles follow one another at breakneck speed, work will continue to accelerate. Knowledge and skills will quickly become outdated - nothing will work without lifelong learning. The continuing education and training sector will therefore expand in the coming years: Working people will increasingly acquire knowledge and skills in in-house and external courses, at private institutes, through multimedia teaching and training programs, via the Internet, abroad or directly at the workplace under the guidance of experienced colleagues. There will also be more modular courses offered by colleges, universities and private providers. This means that people will continue to acquire new degrees and certificates over the course of their lives.
In companies, an increasing proportion of continuing education and training will take place online, especially since this often leads to better learning outcomes than with traditional training programs. In the future, there will be more and more learning communities on the Internet in which specialists with similar areas of expertise can discuss with each other, learn from each other, advise each other and, if desired, take on the role of a mentor. Online courses, learning circles on specific topics and joint projects will also be offered more frequently by companies.
As already mentioned, employees will have to specialize more, as they can only keep up to date in very small areas. They will have to deal with information more and more intensively in order to gain a knowledge advantage over the competition. Due to the increasing information overload, they will also need more time for knowledge management.
Due to the high level of specialization, employees will only be able to complete most tasks in cooperation with others. The workplace will become a place for exchanging ideas and mutual stimulation, as many ideas are generated in meetings. Employees will increasingly work on time-limited projects, whereby the composition of the team can change with each project. In more and more projects employees from several companies will cooperate with customers, freelancers and scientists from research institutions, as this is the only way to develop new goods and services efficiently. Accordingly, people with very different qualifications will work together in teams - e.g. engineers, scientists, mathematicians, computer scientists, designers, marketing and advertising experts.
Project work will demand more flexibility from employees: They will repeatedly have to work together in different places and with different people. However, video conferences will also be used more often. Companies will thus become networks whose geographically dispersed members exchange information regardless of place and time. Employees in developed countries will be required to be more and more creative, since at least in the near future the production of many goods or their components will take place in other countries.
Required Skills
Young people must prepare for a working life in which flexibility and (global) mobility will be of great importance: On the one hand, they will change employers, jobs and places of residence more often than today's employees. But working hours will also become even more varied. They need to be willing to learn throughout their lives and also have the motivation to start all over again (e.g. with a totally different job or another course of study). On the other hand, young people as future employees will increasingly have to cooperate with other people - often in different locations - who will often include colleagues with a migrant background or employees from other countries. Then they will need foreign language and intercultural skills.
Young people should be prepared for the fact that as employees they will have to continuously train and educate themselves - even in their free time. They must be motivated to keep acquiring additional qualifications. As working life will become more hectic, children and young people should learn how to control the flood of information, how to switch off external disruptions (e.g. from incoming WhatsApp messages or emails) and how to concentrate fully on the task at hand.
As future employees will increasingly work in teams and on projects, communicative, interpersonal and cooperative skills are of great importance. Self-confidence, self-assurance and assertiveness are also important so that young people can make their voices heard in a working group and contribute their specialist knowledge.
But new leadership skills will also be in demand: Supervisors and managers will no longer have employees with similar knowledge and skills as those they largely possess themselves. Instead they will have to lead team members who each have special knowledge and skills that the managers do not have. In addition, employees often will not be "subordinates" because they have been sent from other departments, suppliers, universities or customers to work in the respective team for the duration of a project. So supervisors will be in demand who do not lead and order in the classic sense, but who can unleash the creativity of team members, stimulate productive interactions, promote cooperation, settle conflicts and provide the necessary resources. Such skills can be developed to some extent as early as childhood and adolescence.
Demographic Development
In developed and newly industrialized countries the population will no longer grow much or might even shrink. At the same time it will age - and the increasing number of retired people (who grow older and older) will be a heavy burden on the working population. It is therefore inevitable that in the coming decades people will work well beyond their 65th year and will have to reckon with decreasing pension entitlements. Health insurance will become more expensive as the number of old people with chronic illnesses or in need of care will grow so that higher costs have to be covered. Many seniors in need of care will be dependent on public support, as partners or adult children, who previously took on the care, will increasingly be missing (due to divorce or childlessness) or will live far away. Accordingly, more geriatric departments in hospitals, more senior and nursing homes, more day and short-term care places, and more outpatient nursing, domestic and meal services will be needed.
In the coming years, great social tensions are to be expected, which could lead to a " war between the generations". On the one hand, there will be people of working age who do not want to - and cannot - pay ever-increasing social security contributions and taxes. They will be supported by the business sector. On the other hand, there will be senior citizens who will fight to maintain pension, health and long-term care insurance benefits. They will gain more and more political power simply because of their increasing numbers. In addition, voter turnout among senior citizens is significantly higher than in all other age groups. Politicians must therefore pay more and more attention to the needs of older people.
Required Skills
Young people not only need knowledge of demographic developments, but must also be prepared to live with the inevitable consequences. As they will have to pay higher social security contributions and taxes, they will have less money for consumption, long-lasting purchases, building up assets or purchasing a home. However, they will only accept these disadvantages compared to previous generations if they see that seniors are accepting cuts in pension, health and long-term care insurance benefits. They should also be aware that they will inherit more than previous generations, as they are less likely to have to share with (several) siblings. In addition, young people should know the needs and requirements of seniors, the disabled and those in need of care. Through frequent personal contact they can learn how to deal with these people appropriately.
Changes in Society
It is not surprising that people are increasingly afraid in a society that is changing rapidly and is ignoring many problems to be expected in the near future. Some fear that the austerity measures that are looming in health and nursing insurance will mean that good medical care can no longer be guaranteed for everyone and that necessary operations and treatments - especially for older people - will no longer be carried out. They expect that at some point it will be determined how long the life of a very old person is allowed to be extended and in which cases euthanasia is indicated.
The financial and economic crises of recent years have contributing to the fear that people will be less prosperous in the future. The society is also aware of the high level of national debt, which will increasingly limit the scope for action of the federal, state and local governments in the coming years. Moreover, in most counties also the levels of household and company debts are growing. At some point, lenders will insist that this money is repaid - e.g. because insurance companies have to pay out more and more life insurance policies or because retired people want to liquidate their assets in order to secure their standard of living or pay for services not covered by health insurance.
In recent years, the number of rich people has increased in many countries - but also the number of poor households. This means that the middle class is shrinking and many members fear that they (or their children) may lose their status. Many people are also suffering from rising rents in metropolitan areas. Therefore social tensions could increase in the coming years.
In terms of how they organize their own lives, individuals will have even greater freedom in the future than today; traditional ways of life or patterns of thinking and orientation will become less important. Individuals will increasingly have to build social structures through their own efforts and develop individual values and ways of thinking. This can lead to fears and disorientation - but also to becoming more conservative. Other individuals will be cosmopolitan: They will travel a lot, work abroad and immerse themselves in other cultures. They might even develop "multicultural" personalities.
Especially in Europe, the Christian churches will lose more and more members - and influence. Due to migration the number of Muslims will increase. Most of them are and will be (very) religious. In Africa and Asia more and more individuals will become Muslims - even radical ones. In North and South America, however, the influence of the Catholic and Protestant churches will stay high.
Many people will continue to define themselves through their consumption - the clothes they wear, the cars they drive and the food they eat. In addition, according to social scientist Zygmunt Bauman, they will increasingly see themselves as "goods" that need to be "sold": with the help of the most positive self-presentation possible on social websites. On the Internet, attention has become a new "currency" that is reflected in the number of "friends" in one’s account.
People will continue to shop in supermarkets, but increasingly without cash - and at self-service checkouts. Internet communities, in which members rate products, will become increasingly important for purchasing decisions. People will act more confidently as customers because thanks to the Internet they are well informed about the prices and quality of the products and services they are interested in.
People will continue to use traditional print media such as books. However, in most countries the number of newspapers and magazines is shrinking as there are less and less buyers and subscribers. Books will face increasing competition from cheaper and sometimes even free e-books. People will rarely read for longer periods of time, but rather in breaks or in "bites".
The amount of information that is absorbed by individuals via traditional and new media, smartphones and tablets will probably become even greater in coming years. Multitasking is contributing to this development: For example, by using a television set and a smartphone at the same time, more information can be taken in. At the same time, it will become increasingly difficult for a person to filter out data that is important or to assess its quality and reliability. More and more people will feel overwhelmed by the flood of information and distracted from what they consider to be more meaningful activities. Some will concentrate on sensational news, while others will withdraw and flee to worlds that provide safety (e.g. sects or radical political groups). In addition, most people will ignore the opportunities for self-education offered by the Internet and only use it for entertainment.
Information found on the Internet will increasingly be automatically selected according to a person's preferences. On the one hand, there are programs that, for example, compile news according to the user's specifications. On the other hand, the user's previous behavior is taken into account when offering new contents. Over time, Internet programs learn what interests, needs, attitudes and habits a person has. This filter also decides what advertisements are offered to the respective user.
The more information about a person can be found on the Internet and the more data from other sources it can be combined with, the more a person's privacy will shrink, the more transparent he will become, and the more often third parties will make decisions on this basis. For example, in the USA, banks are already rejecting loan applications because data analysis has shown that friends of the applicant named on social websites have fallen behind on their loan repayments. And the American armed forces are specifically trying to recruit young adults who, according to the Internet, are friends of soldiers.
In addition, more and more smartphones, cars and cameras have GPS, so that their location can be determined by third parties. Thanks to appropriate software, it is already possible to assign faces recorded by cameras in public places to people. This would allow people to be monitored almost constantly.
If a person's current location is known, advertising messages from nearby shops, restaurants and banks can be sent to their smartphone. If information about their previous purchasing behavior, preferences and interests is available - which is collected by companies specializing in this, but also by search engines and social websites - it is even possible to target them with very specific advertising (e.g. about special offers that are of interest to them, movies from their favorite genre showing in the next cinema or nearby restaurants serving their favorite cuisine). Customers will thus become increasingly "transparent" - companies will know, for example, where they are at the moment, what their consumption behavior is, whether they have a lot or little money, whether they live alone or have a family.
In the meanwhile, the Internet has become the number one entertainment medium. More and more people watch films and texts from websites on their television or laptop screen as well as on their smartphone or tablet. The number of television channels, videos and computer games on the Internet will continue to grow. Many people will feel at home in virtual worlds and communities. More and more places and institutions will be visited via the Internet - more than half of people already visit virtual rather than physical museums.
Even social life will increasingly be determined by the Internet: Instead of meeting relatives and friends and communicating with them directly, contact with an increasing number of individuals is maintained via the Internet, which can be very time-consuming. This leaves less time for conversations - during which the smartphone is always in sight. As a consequence children and young people might not develop sufficient social skills. However, some experts believe that interpersonal and communication skills can also be tried out and acquired on social websites and in virtual worlds. In addition, people could feel "anchored" in Internet networks as they find their partners there - and friends with whom they meet later on. Moreover, relatives and friends who live far away from each other can better maintain contact via the Internet than through phone calls (when using programs where you can see the person you are talking to), which would strengthen family ties.
The new communication technologies also influence language skills: On the one hand, people are reading worse and more superficially. This is because they are reading less printed texts - and texts on the Internet are usually short and simply written. Moreover they are only skimmed - the average time spent on a website is around 0.6 minutes. On the other hand, written communication now largely takes place via email, WhatsApp, Twitter, etc., where short statements and abbreviations are the norm and feelings are expressed using emoticons. This means that written language, with its many adjectives and adverbs, with multi-syllabic words and terms with multiple meanings, with complex sentences and grammatical structures, is used less and less. The more search engines and other computer programs are used which react to colloquial language and respond verbally, and when dictation programs achieve almost 100 percent accuracy, reading and writing will be practiced even less often.
The more children and young people read short texts only, the more video clips they watch, the more they rely on the spell checker of word processing programs, the more often they save data such as telephone numbers in smartphones, the less they have to concentrate. John Ratey of Harvard Medical School uses the term "acquired attention deficit disorder" for people who can no longer concentrate due to intensive use of mobile devices and the Internet. Fewer and fewer young people are able to sit quietly for long periods of time and think intensively about something. Thus the ability to think analytically is increasingly lost.
Many individuals will develop "e-personalities" in the future, i.e. they will present themselves on social websites differently than they really are. The lack of social control associated with a false identity will also make some people cruel, as shown by the increasing cases of "cyber-bullying". Avatars, representatives of a real person on the Internet or in virtual worlds, will play an increasingly important role. Regardless of whether the avatar is a human or a fantasy creature, if the respective role is played for many hours a week over months and years, the person will identify with it. In addition, they will develop feelings such as love, hate and jealousy for other avatars repeatedly interacting with their avatar. Moreover, technologies are developed that allow people to physically react to virtual partners. The boundaries between real and virtual identities will become increasingly blurred, and many people will have "multiple personalities" - which could lead to feelings of confusion.
Required Skills
Fear of the future might be prevented if children and young people gain a realistic picture of the future. If they are aware that trends such as the aging of the society, growing public and company debts or shortages of raw materials and energy make it unlikely that prosperity will continue to increase, they will be more likely to accept future restrictions on their standard of living or on social security benefits. At the same time, they should - especially as adults - stand up for social justice and show solidarity with poor and disadvantaged groups.
In order not to lose their bearings in a world in which many different values compete with one another and are constantly changing, children and young people should develop their own value system that gives them meaning in life and security. Many will feel rooted in a (sub-) culture with particular religious, literary, musical and artistic forms of expression, into which they were either born or which they chose themselves.
A strong personality, character strengths, a positive self-image and resilience protect against negative influences. Support and security are also provided by being embedded in functioning social networks. However, these must first be found by children and young people, as traditional communities such as relatives and neighbors have lost importance due to mobility, urbanization and a lack of public meeting places. To do this, young people need communicative and interpersonal skills. If they have found or created a good social network, they will not only be able to satisfy their needs for belonging, sociability, recognition and friendship, but will also receive emotional support and practical help if necessary. Many studies have shown that integration into a functioning network has positive effects on physical and mental health, self-image and well-being, makes it easier to cope with stress, everyday pressures and critical life events, leads to more self-confidence and contributes to a more optimistic attitude.
Considering that due to climate change, environmental destruction, resource scarcity and energy crisis individuals must reduce their ecological footprint, children and young people should also learn to question their consumer needs and shop more consciously. Under no circumstances should they continue to define themselves by their consumption, but should develop their self-image and self-esteem on a different basis (e.g. their own performance at school and work or their integration into a social network). Since health insurance benefits are likely to be reduced, they should also place more value on a healthy diet and regular physical activity.
Finally, it is important that children and young people develop media competence. On the one hand, they must learn how to use old and new media. On the other hand, they should be able to deal with problems and dangers - e.g. the flood of information, the increase in "fake news", the disappearing privacy, the risk of addiction through online games and Internet casinos, the replacement of real social contacts with virtual ones, the deterioration of reading and contemplation skills, the impoverishment of written language as well as acquired attention disorders and multiple personalities.
Family and Childhood
In the coming years there will be fewer "traditional" families (a married couple with biological children), but more non-marital partnerships, single parents and stepfamilies, and probably more rainbow families (with same-sex parents) and families with partners from different cultures. The size of the family will hardly change: parents will continue to have only one or two children.
Due to the changes in the economy and the world of work described above, the demands of the job will become greater. More and more parents will work in the evenings or on weekends. They will also have to work more overtime or take work home with them - where, thanks to the Internet and smartphones, they can be reached by their superiors and colleagues at any time. Working parents will therefore have less time to maintain their relationship, engage in leisure activities together and relax. Alienation, stress, conflicts and problems in coordinating life plans will make many relationships relatively unstable.
Parents will have less and less time for their children and their upbringing due to longer working hours. In the future, not only fathers will be at work longer due to professional demands, but also mothers - and the trend will continue that mothers are returning to work earlier after the birth of a child and are increasingly working full-time. In addition, there is often a long journey to work - not only for commuters, but also for people in large cities and metropolitan areas (e.g. due to lots of traffic jams). Therefore children's needs will be neglected often due to a lack of time. Accordingly, the number of children with psychological problems and behavioral problems is likely to increase.
In the coming years, young children will be cared for in day care facilities earlier and for longer periods of time. Childcare options for children under three will be expanded, there will be more full-day places, and more daycare centers will be open in the evenings or on weekends, particularly in larger cities. Accordingly, the time spent with the family will decrease; the importance of childrearing will decline.
If parents and children spend less and less time (together) at home - and often in different rooms - family relationships will become looser. Since family members come home at different times, they will rarely eat together (and have table conversations), but will mostly look after themselves. Since children are becoming independent at an increasingly early age, they are often out with friends after school. Thus on many days communication with parents will only take place via smartphone.
Parents' expectations of their children's school performance will probably continue to rise. On the one hand, this is due to the increasing fear of job loss or social decline: Parents want to offer their children the best development opportunities so that they can later meet the ever-increasing performance expectations of the global knowledge society and earn a good income. On the other hand, they are considering the findings of brain research, learning and developmental psychology that are widely disseminated by the media.
However, many parents will also experience problems in implementing their educational goals in the coming years. This is caused, for example, by many young adults not having the opportunity to gain experience with babies and (young) children before having their own children and as they will continue to be confronted with contradictory parenting concepts and advice from the media. The risk that parents will experience parenting difficulties or develop problematic parenting styles will remain high.
Housework will become less important in the coming years - not only because cooking for the whole family will become less frequent, but also because more and more tasks will be taken over by devices and robots. In addition, many housework tasks will be "outsourced", for example by ordering pizzas and other food from delivery services. Less women will be housewives; family work will become less and less important for women compared to employment.
Required Skills
Young people must develop skills that enable them to shape relationships positively and raise their own children successfully. These include, for example, communication and social skills, a partnership attitude towards the opposite sex and the ability to be intimate. Moreover, young people should recognize that relationships between couples and parent-child relationships must be "nurtured" and that enough time is needed for this. They should attach such great importance to starting a family that they are not deterred later by their income situation, the high cost of living with children, career aspirations or fears about the future. If they strive to have children as early as possible, the probability is higher that they will have as many children as planned and will not have to rely on reproductive medical treatments.
Moreover, young people should acquire basic knowledge of developmental psychology and childrearing. For example, they should learn about the needs of babies and toddlers, about infant care and nutrition as well as about the most important parenting styles and techniques. Cleaning, handicrafts and cooking, on the other hand, will be less important, as the household function of families is becoming less important and the mechanization of housework will continue to advance.
Young people should learn about the characteristics of today's childhood and reflect how they want to shape their own children's childhood. For example, they can discuss the compatibility of one’s family and professional life, the time needed for children, the importance of parent-child bonds, parenting goals and performance expectations. In this way, they can develop attitudes that could later prevent negative parenting styles.